![]() The anti-Biden interpretation is consistent with the history of Virginia’s elections, where the party controlling the White House has lost 11 out of the last 12 times, as well as a deep body of political science research finding that the electorate tends to swing against a president’s party in off-year and midterm elections. In New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, there was a similarly sized swing against Democrats despite CRT not being a major part of the campaign.Ī broader look at election night on November 2 tells a different and more familiar story: McAuliffe lost because of a nationalized backlash against an unpopular incumbent president. The election returns from Virginia show a uniform swing against McAuliffe, not an especially strong backlash in areas where CRT was an especially prominent issue. What the hysteria over critical race theory is really all about And when you zoom out, the pattern of the night’s results is not consistent with a CRT-focused explanation. But exit polls, in addition to generally not being super reliable, are not a very good gauge of what actually swung races: Among other reasons, partisans who would have voted for their party anyway often parrot whatever message they heard from the campaign or allied media. It is true that exit polls showed education and critical race theory as important issues to Virginia voters. There’s one problem: The evidence for this conclusion is surprisingly weak. For the latter, it’s more evidence that Republicans are the party of white backlash and anti-Blackness. ![]() For the former, it’s proof that they’re on the winning side of America’s seemingly endless culture wars. The critical race theory-focused analysis is convenient for both Republicans and Democrats. “Youngkin rode that wave and owned the issue.” “Democrats have to come up with a convincing way to answer the (often false) charges about how children are being taught about structural racism in schools,” Montanaro writes. MSNBC’s Nicole Wallace said on air that “critical race theory, which isn’t real, turned the suburbs 15 points to the Trump-insurrection endorsed Republican.”Įven some nonpartisan analysts, like NPR’s Domenico Montanaro, credited the campaign against education on systemic racial issues with Youngkin’s win. “We are building the most sophisticated political movement in America - and we have just begun.” “Glenn Youngkin made critical race theory the closing argument to his campaign and dominated in blue Virginia,” he writes. A little over a day after Democrats’ brutal defeat in the Virginia governor race, a bipartisan consensus was already emerging about what happened: Republican Glenn Youngkin’s message about the evils of “critical race theory” in schools crushed Democrat Terry McAuliffe.Ĭhris Rufo, one of the most prominent anti-CRT activists, has been taking victory laps on Twitter. ![]()
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